声明，原作者是xbirdiex，一个很好的女孩子

一个企业的成功在很大程度上依赖于财务预测的可靠性. 好的预测和分析需要详细分工和群体合作.
假设我们在2010年年底,开始计划明年的财务

第一步 - Strategy Planning
我们通常聘请外部咨询公司做下面的研究：
1. 去年 (2010年) 重温
* 行业和消费趋势 (什么是旧的/新的, 意义是什么)
* 我们的战略举措
* 我们的市场份额
* 风险和机遇

2. 我们是如何结束这一年, 2011年的前景是什么?
(经济指标业内人士预测对比实际的消费前景)
* 经济指标 - 经济头条继续打压消费者
2010年 (旧的经济情况):
失业率高企 (9.4%) / 住房的影响 / 低消费者信心
2010年 (新的经济情况):
医疗保健费用上升 / 欧洲债务危机 / 假日消费 (+3.8% Nov/Dec) / 税率的不确定性/ 联邦赤字/ 股票市场(S&P 500 +12.8%)
2011年 - 同上 & 增加
油价上升/ 更深的州政府和地方政府预算削减/ 中东的不稳定

* 业内人士预测与实际
消费者开支分类分析
行业收入按年增加或下降分析
公司收入增加或下降%对比行业收入增加或下降%分析
公司对比主要竞争对手分析
....
提供讨论 (例如):
风险: 等待经济回升将被淘汰出局 / 我们如何缩小差距 / 我们要如何准备?
机遇: 哪些客户是成功的最佳位置 / 我们应该如何投入时间和资源？


*消费者开支前景
- 对不同产品, 消费者在2010年开支%
- 最受欢迎的产品和销售数据

3. 我们的2010年战略有多成功?
* 我们可以影响哪些消费人群 (消费人群分析)
* 现在市场结构如何影响利润 (供应商和销售渠道分析) -这种分析是试图找出哪个销售渠道提供最大的利润率, 以便加以扶植. 利润低的渠道尽量控制他们的成长.
* 如何引导消费群购买更大的利润产品
* 风险和机遇 - (“例子” 风险 :消费者困惑 / 机遇: 产品升级)


4. 我们如何提高我们新产品的潜力，并最大限度地提高我们的竞争能力?
* 行业趋势 - 市场规模是不断扩大或缩小?
* 选择市场的一些主要产品, 比较其优势和劣势.
* 分析产品推出时间对产品销售的影响 - 这种分析是试图找出推出产品的最佳时间.
* 地区对产品销售的影响.


5. 我们该如何运用时间以应对日益加剧的竞争?
* 增加对媒体的时间 (宣传和免费内容)
* 生活多元化 - 社会变化影响人们如何安排时间. 如何利用我们的位置以获得人们的关注.
* 转变份额 –消费者对不同产品的喜好变化

6. 哪些消费者最有潜力?
* 消费者年龄 %
* 性别 %
* 家庭 %
* 今年和去年 % 的改变
第一步 Stategy Planning or Review 完成....明天继续

Just some framework for Step II, I will provide details tomorrow.
第二步 Op Plan 制定短中长期预算
Long-Term
* Growth Playbook 1-3 Years
* Op Plan 1 year
Mid-Term
* May Planning
* August Planning
* October Planning
Short-Term
* 13 weeks running forecast
* AR circle short term forecast
* 1-2 weeks forecast


第二步 Op Plan 制定短中长期预算
1. Long-Term
We usually started to work on Long-term planning toward the end of the year.
* Growth Playbook is the 1-3 years outlook for a company.
* Operation Plan is the one-year financial forecast.
How to prepare 1 year Op Plan?
Revenue:
1) List all the products will be selling the coming year.
2) Based on Strategy Review (Step I), Strategy term, Sales and Marketing will group up and decide the unit price and new product release date.
3) Sales term will provide an estimate on how many units they can sell on each product.
4) Based on historical data, forecast next year’s return percentage.
Expense:
1) Based on previous years performance, Sales and Marketing will plan the major promotions (Such as Black Friday, Christmas Sale) and rebate programs for next year. They need to submit the budget for approval.
2) Finance term provide C&B (compensation & Benefit) estimate.
3) Finance gather “controllable” information from department heads. (Controllable means expense that can be controlled. It usually includes Travel&Leisure, Office Supplies, Equipments, Telephone, Employee Events, Legal, IT Expense, Food...)
4) Based on current marketing environment, estimate bad debt (uncollectable) percentage.
5) Add C&B, Controllable, Allocations, Bad Debt and other expense together; then divide them into 12 months and get the monthly expense amount.
After all the data is entered in the system, you can see the estimate profit (Revenue-Expense) for the next year.


2. Mid-term
There may be many problems/events that can affect the actual revenue and expense. We will review Op plan in May, August and October. The purpose of these reviews is to adjust the Op plan and make it more accrue.
* May Planning – After 1st quarter actual is updated and before 2nd quarter close.
* August Planning – After 2nd quarter actual is updated and before 3rd quarter close.
* October Planning - After 3rd quarter actual is updated and before 4th quarter close.
Some common drivers for variance (New planning vs Op Plan) are:
* Timing – New product released earlier or later than we expected.
* Seasonality – longer summer / winter …
* Return rate – More or less return than we expected.
* Higher/ Lower Deduction – bigger promotion to push sales, deeper price cut, etc.
* Others – legal expenses, office move, etc.