It’s typically advisable not to accept Chinese economic data at face value –as even the country’s own premier will tell you. （译注：原文在此附上了路透社文章《China's GDP is "man-made," unreliable: top leader》
　　Figures on everything from inflation and industrial output to energy consumption and international trade often don’t seem to gel with observation and sometimes struggle to stack up when compared with other indicators.
　　How the figures are massaged and by whom is as much a secret as the real data itself. But in an unusual move, the National Bureau of Statistics – clearly frustrated with the lies, damn lies – has recently outed a local government it says was involved in a particularly egregious case of number fudging, providing rare insight into just how we’re being deceived.

　The statistics bureau doesn’t say why Henglan inflated its industrial output numbers. But indications that a local economy is sagging could reflect poorly on the prospects for promotion of local officials, and China’s southern provinces have been particularly hard hit by the global slowdown in demand for the country’s exports. Factories have closed, moving inland and overseas in search of cheaper labor, denting local government revenues.
　　统计局没有说明为何横栏向其工业总产值数字注水。不过颓势的数字指标会影响当地官员的升迁前景，而华南省份在全球经济放缓中、出口需求受到尤其严重打击。工厂纷纷关停，为了寻找廉价劳动力迁往内地或海外，损害了地方政府的税收。
　　“When governments are looking to burnish their track record, that can put the local statistics departments in a very awkward situation,” said a commentary piece that ran Tuesday in the Economic Daily （in Chinese）， a newspaper under the control of the State Council, China’s cabinet. The article said that one of the biggest obstacles to ensuring accurate data is that the agencies responsible for crunching the numbers aren’t independent from local authorities. Moreover, it argues that penalties for producing fake data were too mild to act as a deterrent.
　　“一旦政府决定要把数据搞得漂亮一些，地方统计部门会被置于尴尬地位，”周二出版的中文版经济日报称。（该日报由中国的内阁- 国务院主办）。文章称，保证数字准确的一大障碍是负责处理数据的机构从属于当地政府。另外，数据造假的惩罚过于温柔、没有威慑力。

　The statistics bureau doesn’t say why Henglan inflated its industrial output numbers. But indications that a local economy is sagging could reflect poorly on the prospects for promotion of local officials, and China’s southern provinces have been particularly hard hit by the global slowdown in demand for the country’s exports. Factories have closed, moving inland and overseas in search of cheaper labor, denting local government revenues.
　　统计局没有说明为何横栏向其工业总产值数字注水。不过颓势的数字指标会影响当地官员的升迁前景，而华南省份在全球经济放缓中、出口需求受到尤其严重打击。工厂纷纷关停，为了寻找廉价劳动力迁往内地或海外，损害了地方政府的税收。
　　“When governments are looking to burnish their track record, that can put the local statistics departments in a very awkward situation,” said a commentary piece that ran Tuesday in the Economic Daily （in Chinese）， a newspaper under the control of the State Council, China’s cabinet. The article said that one of the biggest obstacles to ensuring accurate data is that the agencies responsible for crunching the numbers aren’t independent from local authorities. Moreover, it argues that penalties for producing fake data were too mild to act as a deterrent.
　　“一旦政府决定要把数据搞得漂亮一些，地方统计部门会被置于尴尬地位，”周二出版的中文版经济日报称。（该日报由中国的内阁- 国务院主办）。文章称，保证数字准确的一大障碍是负责处理数据的机构从属于当地政府。另外，数据造假的惩罚过于温柔、没有威慑力。

　The National Bureau of Statistics said that it pursued the Henglan case on a tip from a whistleblower. How widespread the problem is elsewhere in the country is anyone’s guess. And sure, this may have been going on for years with little real impact on economic decision making. But with China’s growth slowing for first time since becoming a major player in the global economy, artificially inflated figures threaten to further complicate efforts by companies and governments everywhere to gauge what that slowdown means for them.
　　国家统计局称调查横栏是由一位检举者的线索展开的。没人知道该国类似问题有多严重。可以肯定的是，这样的状况已经有些年头了，对于经济决策真正的影响有限。不过初次在全球经济中成为主要玩家后，中国首次面对经济放缓，人为注水的数据让各地公司及政府评估经济放缓的影响时变得困难。
　　– Dinny McMahon, with contributions from Liqan Qi. Follow Dinny on Twitter @Dinny_McMahon

网友评论：
edward wilk wrote:
How can we accuse the Chinese government of cooking the books after putting up with the BS that flows out of Washington on a continual basis. Our president who ran on a platform of transparency and positive change has shown he expect our voting public to believe whatever he wants to say. He has proved he is a master of intimidation use of power. He makes “Slick Willey” look like an amateur.
既然我们都能忍受从华盛顿源源不断流出的资产负债表了，还有什么理由指责中国政府做假账呢？我们的总统主张透明度和积极变革，他期望选民们能相信他所说的一切。他已经证明自己是一位利用权力进行恐吓威胁的大师，跟他比起来比尔克林顿简直就是业余选手。
The Real OODA loop STAT wrote:
China’s Bureau of Statistics can fudge all the numbers they want!
China can’t fake the fact they are now in a recession, while the US is now heading towards a recovery.
中国的统计局可以随意捏造任何数据。但中国无法掩盖经济衰退的事实，而美国现在正迈向经济复苏。

Gary wrote:
America does the same thing:
The government reduces 15% unemployment to 7.5% by ignoring those who cannot find a job and declaring them “no longer part of the workforce”.
The government reduces 10% inflation to 2% by means of “hedonic adjustment”, meaning they throw out of the basket of goods used to compute inflation anything that is inflating like healthcare or college tuition.
美国在做同样的事：
政府对失业者装聋作哑并宣布其为“非劳动力”，从而将失业率从15%降低到7.5%。
政府通过“享乐调节”将通货膨胀率从10%降低到2%，这意味着他们将诸如医疗保健或高校学费等任何将会计入通货膨胀的东西都通通弃之不理了。

Ken wrote:
We all know that Americans hack the hell of China while excuse China for hacking. No America is excusing China for fudging the number. And that alone would make you think that America is probably fudges a lot more.
Just to go to Walmart and find it out yourselves. If 90% of thing are made in the USA, they China is fudging, if 90% of things are made in China, then China is fudging. … now you get it – that is why they call you rreeddnneccks. Not too brilliant.
我们都知道美国用黑客彻底入侵中国的同时辩称中国也有黑客。现在美国辩称中国伪造数字。这件事会让你认为美国可能也伪造了很多。
就去沃尔玛自己把它找出来。如果90%的东西是美国制造，那么中国在捏造；如果90%的东西是中国制造，美国也说是中国在编造...现在你知道了为什么他们叫你乡下人。不太聪明。
slim wrote:
Now it is time to talk about Chines number, because American hacking story has been exposed by American traitor Edward Snowden.
现在是讨论中国数字的时候了，因为美国的黑客故事已经被美国的叛徒斯诺登曝光了。