我就不信发不了~
China Shows Fresh Signs of EconomicWeakness
Industrial Output Rose 8.6% in theJanuary-February Period, Down From a 9.7% Increase in December
BEIJING—China'seconomy weakened sharply during the first two months of the year, deepeningconcerns that growth in the world's second-largest economy would deceleratefurther.
Thecountry's top leaders now have tough decisions about whether to set aside economicoverhaul measures that could pinch growth in the short-term.
The slowdown was across the board, including retail,manufacturing, housing and investment, as the National Bureau of Statisticsreleased a raft of data on Thursday for January and February, which wascombined to adjust for distortions from the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday.Some of the results were the weakest since the global financial crisis of 2009."This is terrible," said Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at ANZBank. ANZ.AU -1.12% "Iwasn't expecting high figures, but this is worse than I thought."
with the picture，with the truth
The results were announced shortly before Chinese Premier ********* gave mixed signals in a newsconference about how wedded he was to meeting the country's growth target ofabout 7.5%. In an answer to one question, he detailed how hard the governmentpushed to meet the same target in 2013, as a way to head off unemployment.China's GDP grew by 7.7% last year.
In an answerto another question, however, Mr. Li said "we are not preoccupied with GDPgrowth," and said he would be satisfied with a "reasonablerange" of growth so long as it produced sufficient employment. Mr. Lididn't name a minimum level of GDP growth that he would find acceptable.
Still,if GDP growth slows significantly, China analysts said, Mr. Li would come underincreasing pressure to shelve reform plans that could initially hurt growth,even though they would bolster China's economy in the long run. Such measurescould include requiring large state-owned enterprises to pay more in dividendsto the central government, liberalizing interest rates and remaking localgovernment finances so they depend more on taxation than on land sales.
Mr. Lihas a difficult choice, said Société Générale China economist Wei Yao. "Hecan't say, 'Give up on growth,' and he can't say, 'Growth at any cost.'"
Amongthe data reported on Thursday for January and February, industrial output rose8.6% year-over-year, the weakest showing since 2009. Growth in fixed-assetinvestment eased to 17.9% year-over-year, the weakest pace since 2002. Retailsales rose 11.8% year-over-year, the slowest since Feb. 2011.
In thereal estate sector, which is among the largest drivers of growth in the Chineseeconomy, Residential and commercial property sales fell 3.7% to 709.0 billionyuan ($115 billion) in the first two months of this year. Total property salesby floor area declined by 0.1% to 104.7 million square meters. Constructionstarts by area fell 27.4% to 166.9 billion square meters.
Until Thursday's data dump, there had been little hard evidence about the directionof the Chinese economy. Purchasing manager surveys indicated slowing economicactivity, as did trade data. But economists have questioned the reliability oftrade data, arguing that exporters and importers have been using inflatedinvoices as a way to move money into or out of the country.
Marketswere already expecting the worst. The Shanghai Composite rallied slightly onThursday, but remains down 4% over the past month. The Australian dollar, whichis highly sensitive to Chinese demand, also regained some of the ground it lostearlier in the week.
After the data release, Bank of AmericaBAC -0.69% sharplycut its forecast for first-quarter growth to 7.3% from 8.0%, while otheranalysts said they were reassessing their forecasts. Andrew Batson, an analystat Beijing research house Gavekal Dragonomics said that the first two months ofthe year often have weak readings, but, even so, "growth is decelerating;the trend is definitely downward."
LiGuanqun, a 30-year freelance translator in Beijing, said the weak economy hascut demand for her services and convinced her to scrap a European vacation andvisit the industrial Chinese city of Wuhan instead. "I think I need tofind a part-time job to increase my income," she said.
Meanwhile,China's largest alumina maker also said that the economy was deteriorating."The situation is getting tougher and tougher," said an official atAluminum Corp. of China, who asked not to be named. The official said aluminaprices have fallen below its costs.
If thepace of growth doesn't pick up over the coming months, economists said, China'sleaders would feel pressure to stimulate the economy, most likely by cuttingfor the first time since May 2012 the reserves that banks are required to parkin the central bank. That would free up more money for banks to lend.
But it's unclear such a move would help much if demand remains relatively weak.
Chinese Premier Li didn't say what he would do in case of a slowdown. "This year,challenges are still severe," he said. "We need to stabilize growth,ensure employment, prevent inflation, control risks and at the same time tackle inflation. We need to strike a proper balance and this we could say is highly difficult."
China Shows Fresh Signs of EconomicWeakness
Industrial Output Rose 8.6% in theJanuary-February Period, Down From a 9.7% Increase in December
BEIJING—China'seconomy weakened sharply during the first two months of the year, deepeningconcerns that growth in the world's second-largest economy would deceleratefurther.
Thecountry's top leaders now have tough decisions about whether to set aside economicoverhaul measures that could pinch growth in the short-term.
The slowdown was across the board, including retail,manufacturing, housing and investment, as the National Bureau of Statisticsreleased a raft of data on Thursday for January and February, which wascombined to adjust for distortions from the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday.Some of the results were the weakest since the global financial crisis of 2009."This is terrible," said Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at ANZBank. ANZ.AU -1.12% "Iwasn't expecting high figures, but this is worse than I thought."
with the picture，with the truth
The results were announced shortly before Chinese Premier ********* gave mixed signals in a newsconference about how wedded he was to meeting the country's growth target ofabout 7.5%. In an answer to one question, he detailed how hard the governmentpushed to meet the same target in 2013, as a way to head off unemployment.China's GDP grew by 7.7% last year.
In an answerto another question, however, Mr. Li said "we are not preoccupied with GDPgrowth," and said he would be satisfied with a "reasonablerange" of growth so long as it produced sufficient employment. Mr. Lididn't name a minimum level of GDP growth that he would find acceptable.
Still,if GDP growth slows significantly, China analysts said, Mr. Li would come underincreasing pressure to shelve reform plans that could initially hurt growth,even though they would bolster China's economy in the long run. Such measurescould include requiring large state-owned enterprises to pay more in dividendsto the central government, liberalizing interest rates and remaking localgovernment finances so they depend more on taxation than on land sales.
Mr. Lihas a difficult choice, said Société Générale China economist Wei Yao. "Hecan't say, 'Give up on growth,' and he can't say, 'Growth at any cost.'"
Amongthe data reported on Thursday for January and February, industrial output rose8.6% year-over-year, the weakest showing since 2009. Growth in fixed-assetinvestment eased to 17.9% year-over-year, the weakest pace since 2002. Retailsales rose 11.8% year-over-year, the slowest since Feb. 2011.
In thereal estate sector, which is among the largest drivers of growth in the Chineseeconomy, Residential and commercial property sales fell 3.7% to 709.0 billionyuan ($115 billion) in the first two months of this year. Total property salesby floor area declined by 0.1% to 104.7 million square meters. Constructionstarts by area fell 27.4% to 166.9 billion square meters.
Until Thursday's data dump, there had been little hard evidence about the directionof the Chinese economy. Purchasing manager surveys indicated slowing economicactivity, as did trade data. But economists have questioned the reliability oftrade data, arguing that exporters and importers have been using inflatedinvoices as a way to move money into or out of the country.
Marketswere already expecting the worst. The Shanghai Composite rallied slightly onThursday, but remains down 4% over the past month. The Australian dollar, whichis highly sensitive to Chinese demand, also regained some of the ground it lostearlier in the week.
After the data release, Bank of AmericaBAC -0.69% sharplycut its forecast for first-quarter growth to 7.3% from 8.0%, while otheranalysts said they were reassessing their forecasts. Andrew Batson, an analystat Beijing research house Gavekal Dragonomics said that the first two months ofthe year often have weak readings, but, even so, "growth is decelerating;the trend is definitely downward."
LiGuanqun, a 30-year freelance translator in Beijing, said the weak economy hascut demand for her services and convinced her to scrap a European vacation andvisit the industrial Chinese city of Wuhan instead. "I think I need tofind a part-time job to increase my income," she said.
Meanwhile,China's largest alumina maker also said that the economy was deteriorating."The situation is getting tougher and tougher," said an official atAluminum Corp. of China, who asked not to be named. The official said aluminaprices have fallen below its costs.
If thepace of growth doesn't pick up over the coming months, economists said, China'sleaders would feel pressure to stimulate the economy, most likely by cuttingfor the first time since May 2012 the reserves that banks are required to parkin the central bank. That would free up more money for banks to lend.
But it's unclear such a move would help much if demand remains relatively weak.
Chinese Premier Li didn't say what he would do in case of a slowdown. "This year,challenges are still severe," he said. "We need to stabilize growth,ensure employment, prevent inflation, control risks and at the same time tackle inflation. We need to strike a proper balance and this we could say is highly difficult."
