11月20日，2014
原油和外汇市场反映了全球经济预期走低
8月以来，原油和外汇市场已经受到美国之外的全球经济预期走低影响。近期，由于对未来全球经济需求减弱的担忧，这两个市场价格均跌破了原先交易区间。目前的这种情况，即美元指数和原油价格反向变化，与原油供应中断或地缘政治风险引起的美元指数和原油价格双双上涨形成了鲜明对比。
尽管2014年第三季度美国经济出现强劲增长，达到创纪录的3.5%；同时欧洲和中国的经济数据使得原油需求走弱。第三季度欧洲GDP增长0.2%，9月和10月的通胀分别是0.3%和0.4%。在中国，第三季度GDP增长7.3%，这是2009年第一季度以来的最低。
美国和全球其他地区经济增长预期之间的差别也在汇率市场得到反映。随着美国之外其他地区经济增长缓慢，其他国家央行出台刺激措施的可能性增大，如欧洲央行和日本银行最近宣布的降息和定量宽松政策。在美国，强经济增长使得联邦政府结束了定量宽松计划，并且增加了来年提高利率的可能性。体现在货币政策中，这些相反变化的综合作用是美元价值（由美元指数衡量）从8月1日到11月17日增长了8.1%。
撰稿人：詹姆斯·普雷西亚多（JamesPreciado），杰佛·巴伦（Jeff Barron）
November 20,2014
Oil and currency markets reflect expectations for lowerglobal economic growth
Since August, both crude oil andcurrency markets have been influenced by lower economic growth expectations incountries outside the United States. Prices in both markets recentlybroke out of established trading ranges, driven by concerns about weaker futureglobal demand. The current situation, with the dollar index and oil pricesmoving in opposite directions, presents a sharp contrast to one in which crudeoil supply disruptions or geopolitical risks would cause both the dollar indexand crude prices to rise.
Although the U.S. economy showedrobust growth in the third quarter of 2014, recording an estimated 3.5% growthrate, economic data from Europe and China have led to expectations ofpotentially weaker demand for crude oil. Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP)growth was 0.2% in the third quarter, and inflation was low at 0.3% and 0.4% inSeptember and October, respectively. In China, third-quarter GDP growth was7.3%, the lowest annual growth rate since first-quarter 2009.
The divergence of growthexpectations between the United States and the rest of the world is alsoreflected in currency markets. As economic growth slows in countries other thanthe United States, it increases the likelihood that their central banks willimplement further steps to stimulate growth, like the recent announcement ofrate cuts and quantitative easing by the European Central Bank and the Bank ofJapan. In the United States, stronger economic growth led the Federal Reserveto end its quantitative easing program and raises the possibility of increasesin interest rates next year. These opposing shifts in monetary policy had thecombined effect of increasing the value of the U.S. dollar against other worldcurrencies (as measured by the U.S. dollar index) by 8.1% from August 1 toNovember 17.
Principal contributors: JamesPreciado, Jeff Barron
原油和外汇市场反映了全球经济预期走低
8月以来，原油和外汇市场已经受到美国之外的全球经济预期走低影响。近期，由于对未来全球经济需求减弱的担忧，这两个市场价格均跌破了原先交易区间。目前的这种情况，即美元指数和原油价格反向变化，与原油供应中断或地缘政治风险引起的美元指数和原油价格双双上涨形成了鲜明对比。
尽管2014年第三季度美国经济出现强劲增长，达到创纪录的3.5%；同时欧洲和中国的经济数据使得原油需求走弱。第三季度欧洲GDP增长0.2%，9月和10月的通胀分别是0.3%和0.4%。在中国，第三季度GDP增长7.3%，这是2009年第一季度以来的最低。
美国和全球其他地区经济增长预期之间的差别也在汇率市场得到反映。随着美国之外其他地区经济增长缓慢，其他国家央行出台刺激措施的可能性增大，如欧洲央行和日本银行最近宣布的降息和定量宽松政策。在美国，强经济增长使得联邦政府结束了定量宽松计划，并且增加了来年提高利率的可能性。体现在货币政策中，这些相反变化的综合作用是美元价值（由美元指数衡量）从8月1日到11月17日增长了8.1%。
撰稿人：詹姆斯·普雷西亚多（JamesPreciado），杰佛·巴伦（Jeff Barron）
November 20,2014
Oil and currency markets reflect expectations for lowerglobal economic growth
Since August, both crude oil andcurrency markets have been influenced by lower economic growth expectations incountries outside the United States. Prices in both markets recentlybroke out of established trading ranges, driven by concerns about weaker futureglobal demand. The current situation, with the dollar index and oil pricesmoving in opposite directions, presents a sharp contrast to one in which crudeoil supply disruptions or geopolitical risks would cause both the dollar indexand crude prices to rise.
Although the U.S. economy showedrobust growth in the third quarter of 2014, recording an estimated 3.5% growthrate, economic data from Europe and China have led to expectations ofpotentially weaker demand for crude oil. Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP)growth was 0.2% in the third quarter, and inflation was low at 0.3% and 0.4% inSeptember and October, respectively. In China, third-quarter GDP growth was7.3%, the lowest annual growth rate since first-quarter 2009.
The divergence of growthexpectations between the United States and the rest of the world is alsoreflected in currency markets. As economic growth slows in countries other thanthe United States, it increases the likelihood that their central banks willimplement further steps to stimulate growth, like the recent announcement ofrate cuts and quantitative easing by the European Central Bank and the Bank ofJapan. In the United States, stronger economic growth led the Federal Reserveto end its quantitative easing program and raises the possibility of increasesin interest rates next year. These opposing shifts in monetary policy had thecombined effect of increasing the value of the U.S. dollar against other worldcurrencies (as measured by the U.S. dollar index) by 8.1% from August 1 toNovember 17.
Principal contributors: JamesPreciado, Jeff Barron
