12月17日，2014
根据《短期能源展望》中原油市场的评估，EIA预计2014年OPEC成员国（伊朗除外）原油净出口收入将达7000亿美元，这比2013年降低14%，并且这是2010年来的最低。2014年这种大幅下降主要有两方面原因：OPEC原油出口总量下降和油价降低，2014年北海布伦特原油价格同比下降8%。类似原因，2015年OPEC原油出口收入将进一步降低，预计为4460亿美元，这将比2013年低46%。2015年北海布伦特原油价格预计68美元/桶，这个价格在2013年为100美元/桶，2014年为109美元/桶。
伊朗未包含在内，这是因为目前的制裁措施使得石油出口收入无法估算。伊朗或许会对所出口石油进行打折，并且由于制裁限制未能进入国际支付体系，所以可能不会得到所有的石油外汇。
石油价格低廉期限的延长将会给那些更依赖石油出口创汇的OPEC成员国造成最大影响，尤其是委内瑞拉、伊朗和厄瓜多尔。这些国家的政府在2013年已经出现财政赤字，并且其主权财富基金同其他OPEC成员国相似。这使得这些国家不能像其他OPEC成员国一样平衡预算赤字。
许多OPEC成员国家或许在未来都需要调整预算计划，尤其是上面所提及的国家，这是因为低油价、未来全球经济增长和原油生产水平的不确定性所致。同时，由于更低的政府开支，地缘政治风险可能加剧。
撰稿人：詹姆斯·普雷西亚多（ James Preciado），梅根·墨瑟（ Megan Mercer）
DECEMBER 17, 2014
OPEC net oil export revenues expected to fall in 2014 and 2015
Based on crude oil market assessments in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA estimates that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), excluding Iran, will earn about $700 billion in revenue from net oil exports in 2014, a 14% decrease from 2013 earnings and the lowest earnings for the group since 2010. OPEC earnings declined in 2014 largely for two reasons: decreases in the amount of OPEC oil exports and lower oil prices, with the 2014 average for Brent crude oil projected to be 8% below the average 2013 price.
For similar reasons, revenues for OPEC (excluding Iran) in 2015 are expected to fall further, to $446 billion, 46% below the 2013 level. Brent crude oil is projected to average $68 per barrel in 2015, down from $100 per barrel in 2014 and $109 per barrel in 2013.
Iran is excluded in this calculation because current sanctions make it difficult to estimate their crude oil export revenues. Iran may be taking discounts on the crude oil it exports and may not be receiving all the revenue from those sales because of restrictions on accessing international payment systems.
Prolonged periods of lower oil prices have the largest effect on OPEC countries that are more sensitive to losses in revenue, most notably Venezuela, Iraq, and Ecuador. Governments in these countries were already runningfiscal deficits in 2013, and their sovereign wealth funds are smaller compared to other OPEC members. This implies that these countries may not be able to fill budget gaps for as long as other OPEC members.
Further revisions to future budget plans may be required in many OPEC member countries, particularly the countries cited above, because of lower oil prices and large uncertainty over future global economic growth and crude oil production levels. Geopolitical risk may also be elevated because of lower government spending.
Principal contributors: James Preciado, Megan Mercer
根据《短期能源展望》中原油市场的评估，EIA预计2014年OPEC成员国（伊朗除外）原油净出口收入将达7000亿美元，这比2013年降低14%，并且这是2010年来的最低。2014年这种大幅下降主要有两方面原因：OPEC原油出口总量下降和油价降低，2014年北海布伦特原油价格同比下降8%。类似原因，2015年OPEC原油出口收入将进一步降低，预计为4460亿美元，这将比2013年低46%。2015年北海布伦特原油价格预计68美元/桶，这个价格在2013年为100美元/桶，2014年为109美元/桶。
伊朗未包含在内，这是因为目前的制裁措施使得石油出口收入无法估算。伊朗或许会对所出口石油进行打折，并且由于制裁限制未能进入国际支付体系，所以可能不会得到所有的石油外汇。
石油价格低廉期限的延长将会给那些更依赖石油出口创汇的OPEC成员国造成最大影响，尤其是委内瑞拉、伊朗和厄瓜多尔。这些国家的政府在2013年已经出现财政赤字，并且其主权财富基金同其他OPEC成员国相似。这使得这些国家不能像其他OPEC成员国一样平衡预算赤字。
许多OPEC成员国家或许在未来都需要调整预算计划，尤其是上面所提及的国家，这是因为低油价、未来全球经济增长和原油生产水平的不确定性所致。同时，由于更低的政府开支，地缘政治风险可能加剧。
撰稿人：詹姆斯·普雷西亚多（ James Preciado），梅根·墨瑟（ Megan Mercer）
DECEMBER 17, 2014
OPEC net oil export revenues expected to fall in 2014 and 2015
Based on crude oil market assessments in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA estimates that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), excluding Iran, will earn about $700 billion in revenue from net oil exports in 2014, a 14% decrease from 2013 earnings and the lowest earnings for the group since 2010. OPEC earnings declined in 2014 largely for two reasons: decreases in the amount of OPEC oil exports and lower oil prices, with the 2014 average for Brent crude oil projected to be 8% below the average 2013 price.
For similar reasons, revenues for OPEC (excluding Iran) in 2015 are expected to fall further, to $446 billion, 46% below the 2013 level. Brent crude oil is projected to average $68 per barrel in 2015, down from $100 per barrel in 2014 and $109 per barrel in 2013.
Iran is excluded in this calculation because current sanctions make it difficult to estimate their crude oil export revenues. Iran may be taking discounts on the crude oil it exports and may not be receiving all the revenue from those sales because of restrictions on accessing international payment systems.
Prolonged periods of lower oil prices have the largest effect on OPEC countries that are more sensitive to losses in revenue, most notably Venezuela, Iraq, and Ecuador. Governments in these countries were already runningfiscal deficits in 2013, and their sovereign wealth funds are smaller compared to other OPEC members. This implies that these countries may not be able to fill budget gaps for as long as other OPEC members.
Further revisions to future budget plans may be required in many OPEC member countries, particularly the countries cited above, because of lower oil prices and large uncertainty over future global economic growth and crude oil production levels. Geopolitical risk may also be elevated because of lower government spending.
Principal contributors: James Preciado, Megan Mercer
