23P.TWENTYFOUR 10 APR 2015 0001ZHalf-sized, ( 34 K) click image to get full-size ( 281 K).

23P TWENTYTHRE 150410 0000 14.0S 160.5E SHEM 45 989
昨晚发展非常快，直接构建CDO，现在看来在卷眼。风场扫到40+
JTWC首报上望75kt

南半球依然高产状态

可能进入BOM责任区，FMS06UTC基本会命名为Solo。

已命名 Solo
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 10/0802 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 160.3E AT
100600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST SEMICIRCLE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH THE INNER MOST BAND WRAPPING AROUND LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT HAS DECREASED
IN AERIAL EXTEND IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SOLO LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. SST AROUND 31
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A CURVED BAND WITH A 0.6
WRAP, THUS YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 16.6S 160.4E MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 18.1S 161.0E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 19.4S 162.4E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 20.7S 164.5E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 101400 UTC.

新喀里多尼亚终究还是躲不掉

A. STS SOLO (23P)
B. 10/0832Z
C. 15.39S
D. 160.60E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS 3.0 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT. BREAK CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID CONSOLIDATION. POSITION AIDED BY MICROWAVE SUITE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0607Z 14.98S 160.61E MMHS
10/0904Z 15.46S 160.59E SSMS
SHAWNE

横扫新喀里多尼亚机率很高. 就在后天
底层有比前张好

TPPS10 PGTW 101216
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (S OF SOLOMON ISLANDS)
B. 10/1132Z
C. 15.90S
D. 160.54E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0721Z 15.12S 160.53E GPMI
10/0728Z 15.22S 160.30E SSMS
10/0751Z 15.28S 160.37E SSMS
10/0752Z 15.28S 160.38E SSMS
10/0904Z 15.42S 160.32E SSMS
10/0905Z 15.40S 160.30E SSMS
LEMBKE

CURRENT ACTIVITY
SH22: JOALANE (75kts)
SH23:TWENTYTHRE (45kts)

23P TWENTYTHRE 150410 1200 16.0S 160.5E SHEM 45 989

最新底层显示北侧以崩，周围风切20+

】明显被切，底层半裸，老J上望55
23P SOLO 150410 1800 17.0S 161.1E SHEM 50 985

也就那样了，周围风切不小，除了被切别无他路。