2015-12-03 13:4329个评论字号: 大中小
Watch out for US recession, zero interest rates in China next year, Citi says
花旗集团：小心美国的衰退，中国明年零利息
LONDON: The outlook for the global economy next year is darkening, with a US recession and China becoming the first major emerging market to slash interest rates to zero both potential scenarios, according to Citi.
As the US economy enters its seventh year of expansion following the 2008-09 crisis, the probability of recession will reach 65 per cent, Citi’s rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. A rapid flattening of the bond yield curve towards inversion would be an key warning sign.
“The cumulative probability of US recession reaches 65 percent next year,” Citi’s rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. “Curve inversion will likely come more quickly than the consensus thinks.”
花旗集团说，明年全球经济展望黯淡无光，美国面临衰退，中国会成为第一个利息为零的大型新兴市场。
继2008-09年经济危机以来，美国经济进入第7个扩张年份，衰退的可能性将达到65%，花旗集团的利率策略师在周二发布的2016年展望上写道。
美国衰退的累积概率明年会达到65%，花旗集团的利率策略师在周二发布的2016年展望上写道， 反转曲线可能会比大家所想的更快。