Correlation does not necessarily imply causation in any meaningful sense of that word. The econometric graveyard is full of magnificent correlations, which are simply spurious or meaningless. Interesting examples include a positive correlation between teachers’ salaries and the consumption of alcohol and a superb positive correlation between the death rate in the UK and the proportion of marriages solemnized in the Church of England. Economists debate correlations which are less obviously meaningless.
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The Granger (1969) approach to the question of whether 
causes 
is to see how much of the current 
can be explained by past values of 
and then to see whether adding lagged values of 
can improve the explanation.
causes is to see how much of the current can be explained by past values of and then to see whether adding lagged values of can improve the explanation.
is said to be Granger-caused by 
if 
helps in the prediction of 
, or equivalently if the coefficients on the lagged 
’s are statistically significant. Note that two-way causation is frequently the case; 
Granger causes 
and 
Granger causes 
.
It is important to note that the statement “
Granger causes 
” does not imply that 
is the effect or the result of 
. Granger causality measures precedence and information content but does not by itself indicate causality in the more common use of the term.
Granger causes ” does not imply that is the effect or the result of . Granger causality measures precedence and information content but does not by itself indicate causality in the more common use of the term. When you select the Granger Causality view, you will first see a dialog box asking for the number of lags to use in the test regressions. In general, it is better to use more rather than fewer lags, since the theory is couched in terms of the relevance of all past information. You should pick a lag length, 
, that corresponds to reasonable beliefs about the longest time over which one of the variables could help predict the other.
, that corresponds to reasonable beliefs about the longest time over which one of the variables could help predict the other.
series in the group. The reported F-statistics are the Wald statistics for the joint hypothesis:扫二维码下载贴吧客户端
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