标题：Yanghe Brewery Joint-StockGrowth of Tianzhilan and Mengzhilan to accelerate
发布日期：2016-03-03 8:15:44
内容： 2016 earnings to grow 16.6% YoY The company preannounced 2015e operating revenue growth of 9.4% and net profit growth of 19.2%, slightly higherthan market expectations mainly thanks to higher investment income and improving product mix. Its 2015 resultsshould meet its targets; operating revenue growth in 4Q almost zero mainly due to adjustments and control measuresof its sales system and distributors. Potential 2016 highlights include high growth of high-end products and stronggrowth in “new Jiangsu markets”; more robust growth could be driven by product mix improvement. Trends to watch Growth of Tianzhilan and Mengzhilan to accelerate in 2016, leading the sector’s trend of consumptionupgrading, showing competitive advantages in terms brand and quality. Tianzhilan and Mengzhilan operating revenuecould see 25% and 30% CAGRs in the next three years, respectively, in line with the sector’s trend of consumptionupgrading. Tianzhilan priced at Rmb250/bottle and Mengzhilan M3 at Rmb350 have excellent performance/price ratios.In 2016, operating revenue of Tianzhilan and Mengzhilan could reach Rmb720mn and Rmb4.08bn, respectively;nationwide expansion of key products is in the early stage. “New Jiangsu markets” could continue to deliver high growth, ~20% in 2016, further promoting thecompany’s nationwide expansion, bringing long-term growth potential and promoting its product mix upgrades.Adjustments to distribution networks in “new Jiangsu markets” have been completed; group purchases could furtherboost nationwide sales of Tianzhilan and Mengzhilan; a precision marketing network for Haizhilan and lower-tierproducts is taking shape, positing visible advantages in marketing. Continuous consumption upgrading in Jiangsu to secure stable growth over the long run. Tianzhilan andMengzhilan M3 & M6 (Rmb250~500/bottle) are playing dominant roles in mainstream business and mass consumptionin Jiangsu, and could continue to lead the trend of business and mass consumption upgrading in Jiangsu. Valuation and recommendation Revise 2015e and 2016e operating revenue forecasts by -1.7% and +1% to Rmb16.05bn and Rmb18.43bn; raiseearnings forecasts by 5.5% and 7.5% to Rmb5.37bn and Rmb6.27bn, respectively. Given its potentialstrong growth driven by nationwide expansion, we give a 22x 2016e P/E, raise our TP by 19% to Rmb91.5, andmaintain BUY. Risks Volatile operating profit due to poor management of distributors’ profits.
发布日期：2016-03-03 8:15:44
内容： 2016 earnings to grow 16.6% YoY The company preannounced 2015e operating revenue growth of 9.4% and net profit growth of 19.2%, slightly higherthan market expectations mainly thanks to higher investment income and improving product mix. Its 2015 resultsshould meet its targets; operating revenue growth in 4Q almost zero mainly due to adjustments and control measuresof its sales system and distributors. Potential 2016 highlights include high growth of high-end products and stronggrowth in “new Jiangsu markets”; more robust growth could be driven by product mix improvement. Trends to watch Growth of Tianzhilan and Mengzhilan to accelerate in 2016, leading the sector’s trend of consumptionupgrading, showing competitive advantages in terms brand and quality. Tianzhilan and Mengzhilan operating revenuecould see 25% and 30% CAGRs in the next three years, respectively, in line with the sector’s trend of consumptionupgrading. Tianzhilan priced at Rmb250/bottle and Mengzhilan M3 at Rmb350 have excellent performance/price ratios.In 2016, operating revenue of Tianzhilan and Mengzhilan could reach Rmb720mn and Rmb4.08bn, respectively;nationwide expansion of key products is in the early stage. “New Jiangsu markets” could continue to deliver high growth, ~20% in 2016, further promoting thecompany’s nationwide expansion, bringing long-term growth potential and promoting its product mix upgrades.Adjustments to distribution networks in “new Jiangsu markets” have been completed; group purchases could furtherboost nationwide sales of Tianzhilan and Mengzhilan; a precision marketing network for Haizhilan and lower-tierproducts is taking shape, positing visible advantages in marketing. Continuous consumption upgrading in Jiangsu to secure stable growth over the long run. Tianzhilan andMengzhilan M3 & M6 (Rmb250~500/bottle) are playing dominant roles in mainstream business and mass consumptionin Jiangsu, and could continue to lead the trend of business and mass consumption upgrading in Jiangsu. Valuation and recommendation Revise 2015e and 2016e operating revenue forecasts by -1.7% and +1% to Rmb16.05bn and Rmb18.43bn; raiseearnings forecasts by 5.5% and 7.5% to Rmb5.37bn and Rmb6.27bn, respectively. Given its potentialstrong growth driven by nationwide expansion, we give a 22x 2016e P/E, raise our TP by 19% to Rmb91.5, andmaintain BUY. Risks Volatile operating profit due to poor management of distributors’ profits.
