(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.8S 175.7W, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 300345Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF 95P IS
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) BUT HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) AND WILL
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AROUND TAU 48 INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE EAST IN THE NEAR TERM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

95P INVEST 180130 0600 22.4S 175.4W SHEM 20 1002

95P INVEST 180130 1200 21.7S 175.1W SHEM 25 999

运气好的话说不定可以升格

SH, 95, 2018013100, , BEST, 0, 217S, 1719W, 30, 999, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 145, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.6S 171.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.7S 171.9W, APPROXIMATELY
645 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 310332Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME LIGHT
CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF THE LLC. INVEST 95P IS BELOW A TIGHT
GRADIENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT
IS CAUSING THE CONVECTION DISPLACEMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) BUT DECREASE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 95P WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN
THE NEAR TERM, BEFORE TURNING SOUTH AND DEVELOPING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM BEFORE TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

TPPS11 PGTW 310559
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95P (ESE OF TONGA)
B. 31/0540Z
C. 21.62S
D. 171.12W
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LEMBKE

SH, 95, 2018013106, , BEST, 0, 219S, 1711W, 30, 999, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 145, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

TPPS11 PGTW 310853
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95P (ESE OF TONGA)
B. 31/0830Z
C. 21.72S
D. 170.92W
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
31/0332Z 22.23S 171.87W SSMS
LEMBKE

TPPS11 PGTW 311150
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95P (ESE OF TONGA)
B. 31/1130Z
C. 22.46S
D. 169.90W
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LEMBKE

SH, 95, 2018013112, , BEST, 0, 225S, 1699W, 30, 1000, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 145, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

TPPS11 PGTW 311439
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95P (ESE OF TONGA)
B. 31/1430Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
31/0856Z 23.15S 169.93W MMHS
LEMBKE