(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 169.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 169.7E, APPROXIMATELY 354 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100245Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LITTLE TO NO DEEP CONVECTION. INVEST 91P IS CURRENTLY IN AN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL TRACK GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT BEGINS FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 90P TO ITS WEST, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED; HOWEVER, GFS IS RESOLVING INVEST 91P AS THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION, INTENSIFYING IT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

91P INVEST 201210 0600 11.9S 170.7E SHEM 20 1002

更正一下16楼报文 91P INVEST 201210 0000 14.6S 169.2E SHEM 15 1010

TXPS42 PHFO 101132
TCSSP2
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1120 UTC THU DEC 10 2020
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91P
B. 10/1100Z
C. 12.0S
D. 170.1E
E. HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION WRAPPING .2 ON LOG10. DT OF 1.0 WITH PT AGREEING.
NO MET AVAILABLE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
$$
M BALLARD

91P INVEST 201210 1200 11.0S 170.3E SHEM 25 1004

GFS新报预计90P将被91P吞并，91P巅峰949

91P INVEST 201210 1800 11.2S 170.6E SHEM 20 1004

TXPS26 KNES 101935
TCSWSP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91P)
B. 10/1730Z
C. 10.7S
D. 170.3E
E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.0/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. GREATER THAN .2 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET IS 1.0 AND PT
IS LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN T-NO. TO
0.5 IN 6 HR.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON