1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3
2.A POSITION 2024/11/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 76.3 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/13 06 UTC: 10.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 95
24H: 2024/11/13 18 UTC: 10.4 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 65
36H: 2024/11/14 06 UTC: 10.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 75
48H: 2024/11/14 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75
60H: 2024/11/15 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75
72H: 2024/11/15 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/16 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
120H: 2024/11/17 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60