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斯里兰卡以南
似乎西南印度洋也有一个扰动 IMD展望
Thus, there is high probability of formation of low pressure area over the south BoB during
middle of week 1 with moderate probability of cyclogenesis over southwest BoB during later part
of week 1 & beginning of week 2.
Verification of forecast issued during last two weeks:
The forecast issued on 22nd November for week 2 (30 Nov.-06 Dec.) predicted low probability
of formation of low pressure area over the southeast Arabian Sea during second half of week 2.
During the period, there have been cyclonic circulations over Maldives, Comorin, Lakshadweep
and southeast Arabian Sea leading to enhanced convective activity over the region.
The forecast issued on 29
th November for week 1 (30 Nov.-06 Dec) predicted low probability of
formation of low pressure area over the south BoB during later part of week 1 and beginning of
week 2. During the period a trough of low developed over south Andaman Sea and
neighbourhood around 1st. It moved westwards and reached Comorin on 5th. Under it’s influence
enhanced convective activity was observed over Sri Lanka during 3rd & 4th.
Hence probability of non-occurrence of cyclogenesis could be predicted well two weeks in
advance.
Thus, there is high probability of formation of low pressure area over the south BoB during
middle of week 1 with moderate probability of cyclogenesis over southwest BoB during later part
of week 1 & beginning of week 2.
Verification of forecast issued during last two weeks:
The forecast issued on 22nd November for week 2 (30 Nov.-06 Dec.) predicted low probability
of formation of low pressure area over the southeast Arabian Sea during second half of week 2.
During the period, there have been cyclonic circulations over Maldives, Comorin, Lakshadweep
and southeast Arabian Sea leading to enhanced convective activity over the region.
The forecast issued on 29
th November for week 1 (30 Nov.-06 Dec) predicted low probability of
formation of low pressure area over the south BoB during later part of week 1 and beginning of
week 2. During the period a trough of low developed over south Andaman Sea and
neighbourhood around 1st. It moved westwards and reached Comorin on 5th. Under it’s influence
enhanced convective activity was observed over Sri Lanka during 3rd & 4th.
Hence probability of non-occurrence of cyclogenesis could be predicted well two weeks in
advance.
处于较强的风切中，还未接上西风急流
94B INVESTAs of 06:00 UTC Dec 09, 2018:
Location: 4.9°N 87.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
CURRENT ACTIVITY05P: OWEN (25kt 1004mb)
94B: INVEST (25kt 1004mb)
98P: INVEST (35kt 996mb)
99C: INVEST (20kt 1006mb)
CURRENT ACTIVITY
涡度白，形态不错，但中心仍然外露扫二维码下载贴吧客户端
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