GFS预报的珠三角台风。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N
145.1E, APPROXIMATELY 394 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 230612Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD AND
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 230010Z METOP-B ASCAT
PASS SIMILARLY REVEALS THE LLC TO BE VERY DISORGANIZED AND SHOWS 10
TO 15 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLC. 99W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

EC12z巅峰调弱至996hpa，后期逼近上海。

GFS18z，调弱巅峰至982hpa，登陆越南。