For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have not increased in organization during
the past day or so. This system is expected to interact and
possibly merge with another disturbance to its southwest over the
next couple of days, and the likelihood of development appears to
be decreasing. The low is forecast to move northwestward at about
10 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

95E INVEST 191005 0600 16.1N 127.4W EPAC 30 1008

EP, 95, 2019100506, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1274W, 30, 1008, LO,

EP, 95, 2019100512, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1284W, 30, 1008, LO,

TXPZ29 KNES 051231
TCSENP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)
B. 05/1200Z
C. 16.7N
D. 128.8W
E. FIVE/GOES-W
F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL DEFINED CLOUD LINES,
WITH THE CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 75NM FM A VERY SMALL COLD OVERCAST. DT
IS 1.0. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...ZHU

95E INVEST 191005 1800 16.6N 129.3W EPAC 30 1008

1. Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with an
area of low pressure located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California has become less defined, and
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is not very well
organized. This system is expected to move northwestward at about
10 mph and merge with another disturbance to its southwest over the
next couple of days, and the likelihood of development continues
to decrease.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

对流复活

1. An area of low pressure located about 1350 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. However,
satellite data suggests that the circulation of the disturbance is
becoming less defined. This system is expected to move
northwestward at about 10 mph and merge with another disturbance to
its southwest within the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

95E INVEST 191006 0000 17.5N 130.0W EPAC 30 1008

1. Shower activity has decreased during the past few hours near an area
of low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, the
circulation of the low appears less defined that it was yesterday,
and development of this system is unlikely. This low is expected to
move northwestward at about 10 mph and merge with another
disturbance to its southwest in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

1. Shower activity has continued to decrease this morning near an area
of low pressure located more than 1400 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, the
circulation of the low continues to become less defined, and
development of this system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
Forecaster Stewart