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94B INVEST 181210 0000 5.8N 86.1E IO 15 1006
94B INVEST 181210 0600 6.1N 86.5E IO 15 1007
94B INVEST 181210 1200 6.2N 87.1E IO 15 1006
94B INVEST 181210 0600 6.1N 86.5E IO 15 1007
94B INVEST 181210 1200 6.2N 87.1E IO 15 1006
TPIO10 PGTW 101838
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94B (E OF SRI LANKA)
B. 10/1800Z
C. 5.05N
D. 85.59E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94B (E OF SRI LANKA)
B. 10/1800Z
C. 5.05N
D. 85.59E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
GEM大胜利 TPIO10 PGTW 102120
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94B (E OF SRI LANKA)
B. 10/2050Z
C. 5.66N
D. 87.11E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94B (E OF SRI LANKA)
B. 10/2050Z
C. 5.66N
D. 87.11E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
CURRENT ACTIVITY05P: OWEN (25kt 1004mb)
94B: INVEST (25kt 1004mb)
98P: INVEST (35kt 996mb)
99C: INVEST (20kt 1006mb)
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 87.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 542
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 111552Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH
SPARSE CONVECTION THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS THAT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST 24HRS, BEING OFFSET BY ADEQUATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM 28C TO 30C ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, WITH SOME MODELS
SHOWING 94B REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF
THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
NEAR 6.2N 87.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 542
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 111552Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH
SPARSE CONVECTION THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS THAT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST 24HRS, BEING OFFSET BY ADEQUATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM 28C TO 30C ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, WITH SOME MODELS
SHOWING 94B REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF
THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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