94B INVEST 181211 1800 5.5N 90.0E IO 20 1007

还能苟多久？

是否为天兔？

BOB/10/2018
Dated: 11.12.2018
A well marked low pressure area lay over southeast Bay of Bengal & adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean at 0830 hours IST of today, the 12th December 2018

94B INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC Dec 12, 2018:
Location: 5.4°N 89.6°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

TPIO10 PGTW 121828
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94B (E OF SRI LANKA)
B. 12/1800Z
C. 6.68N
D. 88.67E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET/PT BOTH AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MILAM

94B INVEST 181212 1800 6.7N 89.1E IO 25 1008

98c吗

io9418.kmz 13-Dec-2018 02:23 306k

io9418.kmz 13-Dec-2018 02:23 306k
TCFA

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 89.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 511
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. XXXXXX ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY. MODELS INDICATE
THE DISTURBANCE REACHING TROPICAL STRENGTH WITH IN THE NEXT 30-48
HOURS. XXXXX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A ()
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.