WTIO21 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.1N 88.7E TO 11.7N 82.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 88.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 89.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 511
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 122203Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER
THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS 15-20
KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER FROM THE NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY. MODELS
INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
140300Z.//
NNNN

BOB/10/2018
Dated: 13.12.2018
Depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal at 0000 UTC of 13th December.

TPIO10 PGTW 130544 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94B (E OF SRI LANKA)
B. 13/0301Z
C. 6.70N
D. 89.50E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY. COR'D POSITION BASED ON 13/0302Z METOP-A
ASCAT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DAVIS

GFS上望不高

CURRENT ACTIVITY
05P: OWEN (25kt 1004mb)
94B: INVEST (30kt 1005mb)
30节了

[cp]【一个不简单的气旋风暴——帮忙搞定北京初雪？】目前斯里兰卡东边，有个低压在发展，明天有机会获得编号，加强为孟加拉湾气旋风暴（相当于我国标准的热带风暴）。这个风暴不出意外，16日晚-17日登陆印度东部。可能有人说，关注它有什么意思？意思真不小。这个系统后期会给我国带来影响。
最直接的影响，17日晚-18日，西藏中东部、四川西部可能有大范围降雪。间接影响是，助攻我国中东部地区18日晚-20日有一次大范围的降水过程（图4-5）。风暴登陆印度后的残余低压，协助南支槽和副高输送水汽，打造一条暖湿气流的高速公路，也就是气象专业上的说的西南急流（图6-7），欧洲数值甚至给出水汽向北能到华北，700百帕暖湿能到北京（图8），因此在19日晚-20日，欧洲数值给出北京有降雪（认真回看下图5）！
当然先别激动，GFS预报看，降水从北京边上擦过（图9）。而且未来气温回升，这个降水相态也不敢说一定是雪。这个还需要后期再关注临近情况。另外，再说明下，这个低压系统的作用。如果没有它，南方也会有降水，因为水汽的输送着主力是南支槽和副高，有了这个低压的风场加速作用，使得暖湿气流更强更偏北。所以科学严谨来说，不是这个低压导致了后期我国大规模降水，是助攻了降水！使得降水更多、更强。[/cp]

94B INVEST 181213 1800 7.6N 88.2E IO 30 1005

WTIO21 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140251Z DEC 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 140300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 88.0E TO 12.8N 82.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 87.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
88.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 88.2E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 132141Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC WITH BANDING FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CIRCULATION. 94B IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) AND EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND IS SITTING IN A SMALL POCKET OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) WITH HIGHER VWS VALUES TO THE NORTHWEST.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY WITH INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THIS SUPERSEDES
REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150300Z.//
NNNN

FKIN20 DEMS 140308
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20181214/0000Z
TC: NONAME
NR: 02
PSN: N0812 E08736
MOV: NW08KT
C: 1002HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 14/0600Z N0848 E08700
FCST MAX WIND+06HR: 30KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 14/1200Z N0924 E08612
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 14/1800Z N1000 E08536
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 15/0000Z N1036 E08560
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 40KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20181214/0900Z
TOO: 140800 HRS IST

涡度白，形态不错，但中心仍然外露

FKIN20 DEMS 140931
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20181214/0600Z
TC: NONAME
NR: 03
PSN: N0830 E08724
MOV: NW04KT
C: 1002HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 14/1200Z N0848 E08706
FCST MAX WIND+06HR: 30KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 14/1800Z N0924 E08624
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 30KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 15/0000Z N1000 E08524
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 15/0600Z N1112 E08430
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 40KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20181214/1500Z
TOO: 141430 HRS IST

94B INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC Dec 14, 2018:
Location: 8.1°N 86.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb